Palin - another Quayle?

Given that the McCain campaign has bent over backward in hiding Sarah Palin from press scrutiny, instead of unleashing the self-described "bulldog" to attack Obama, comparisons have been drawn between Sarah Palin and Dan Quayle. How much water does it hold?

Like Quayle, Palin is prone to making gaffes in front of the press. Just watch her disastrous interviews with Katie Couric, the repercussions of which has not yet played out. In addition, her campaign's reluctance to give the press any kind of access to her reinforces the perception that she's a lightweight who needs to be treated with kid gloves, like Quayle was.

However, unlike Quayle, who many easily dismissed as harmless, the idea of a President Palin with access to the nuclear codes send a chill down the spines of many Americans. The majority of the population is simply not going to be comfortable with a woman who believed that humans once walked with dinosaurs, who as mayor tried to ban books in her town's library, who wants to outlaw abortion even in case of rape and incest, and who is facing and will be facing more investigation once the McCain camp is gone.

The latest polls have shown that whatever "game changing" dynamic she has introduced to the race is all but gone. Sure, the religious right is fired up, and a handful of former Hillary supporters might vote for her just to spite their party's nose, but at the end of the day she'll end up scaring away more moderates and independents with her extreme views and her incompetence than the social conservatives she's gained for McCain.

Does that mean that the Quayle analogy apply? Well, in a sense, some of the dynamic of the 1992 race is already in play. Because Dan Quayle was considered too much of the lightweight, he was not able to perform the traditional "attack dog" duties usually assigned to vice-presidential candidates. In the current election cycle, McCain had gone on the offensive against Obama himself many times, instead of letting Palin do the job. Unless Palin performs exceptionally well in the vice-presidential debate, she will be relegated to the sidelines for the rest of the campaign.

Ultimately, the Palin candidacy will end up having as much impact as the Quayle candidacy, which is not much. The time the vice-presidential nominee materially change the outcome of ONE state was when LBJ helped JFK carry Texas in 1960.